by Moore Holmes
The DUP deal does not address the fundamental issues Unionists have been raising about the Protocol since 2019.
The Irish Sea Border still exists. Customs infrastructure and processes remain in effect when moving trade from Great Britain into Northern Ireland. The Acts of Union are still under duress and nothing within this new deal restores the “equal footing” element at the heart of the Union itself.
The sovereignty issue has also not been put to bed. Foreign European Union law continues to apply in Northern Ireland, although not automatically, without any confident means of redressing it. The Stormont Brake does “give Northern Ireland a say,” but the greater say rests with the European Union. A veto is on the table for future new or amended EU law, but you must climb a political mountain to use it, and even then, you still may not stop it.
Without discounting any of the above, and despite the impressively fast and forceful critique of the DUP’s deal by others, I do think it is a mistake to dismiss some of the real and potential progress that has been made. I use the word “potential” because the main selling point behind Sir Jeffrey’s deal is still to be rubber stamped.
If the government deliver on their commitment to remove all checks and customs paperwork when moving goods via the UK Internal Market System (pending Joint Committee approval), that will represent progress. The Irish Sea Border will still exist, but it would do so in a limited capacity, less than what it did before. That is the very definition of progress.
The UK Internal Market Guarantee is also a welcome stabilisation mechanism to ensure most of the trade flowing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland goes through the streamlined channel. Again however, there is no legal guarantee that this is going to happen, and like the removal of checks, it remains subject to European Union approval via the Joint Committee.
There is an unsettling degree of uncertainty looming over these commitments, which makes it strange that they were so integral to the DUP’s rationale for returning to Stormont. Time will tell if these pledges come true, and if they do not, the DUP will be held accountable for it.
The East-West Council, InterTrade UK, various Working Groups, and the Independent Monitoring Panel are promising instruments which can and must be utilised to not only examine the impact of the Irish Sea Border, but also to stifle it. They can be used to promote and protect Northern Ireland’s, albeit already impaired, trading relationship with Great Britain. These mechanisms would be foolish to forfeit. If you really mean the cry is “No Surrender,” then Unionism must now occupy these arenas and continue the fight using what is available to them.
Of course, none of the mitigations negate how ludicrous it is that they are even required in the first place – nor can they actually remove the Irish Sea Border in its totality.
The entire package of DUP measures is an exercise in damage limitation, and the cost of securing these mitigations is to tacitly accept and implement the very infrastructure Unionism has been so vehemently opposed to. It is a bitter pill for Unionists to swallow and many, quite understandably, still refuse to stomach it.
The harsh reality is that the DUP agreement is an attempt to salvage what one can from the constitutional and economic wreckage that is the Northern Ireland Protocol. They are convinced that staying out of Stormont has achieved all that it can and are now embarking upon the path of partial acceptance and operational obstructionism to the Irish Sea Border, all the while pushing for further change. They are certainly not traitors. They have pushed for as many concessions that I believe the political landscape will probably allow for.
It should also be remembered that the real “Surrender Deal” was negotiated not by the DUP, but by the British Government when they disavowed Northern Ireland to the European Union. Unionism has been picking up the pieces ever since.
How the DUP have went about landing the plane has also left a lot to be desired. Three unnecessary decisions have caused avoidable turbulence which are worth examining.
First, rather than being honest about their own shortcomings, which I think more Loyalists would have respected, they scored an own goal by pretending the deal meets a threshold that it evidently does not. The Irish Sea Border is still there and Sir Jeffrey’s claims to the contrary is an insult to the electorate.
Second, the speed at which the party spun the car around has also caused a stir. Within three days of the deal being published, a Speaker was nominated at Stormont. Rather than allowing time and space for scrutiny of the deal – a deal that has huge constitutional ramifications for the future – they have rushed back into Stormont like someone who just realised they left their kids at the supermarket.
Third, the legal advice received by the party to validate their return to Stormont has inexplicably and unjustifiably remained in the shadows. In the battle for hearts and minds, affirmative legal advice would have been to the DUP’s benefit. Why then have they not shared it? If it says what the DUP top brass claim it to say, it will go some way in assuaging their opponents. Why then did they withhold it? What use is a gun if you refuse to take out of the holster, unless of course, there are no bullets in it to begin with.
Frankly, the entire process reeks of political shock and awe and people are well within their right to highlight that.
Now that Stormont is resurrected, Unionism is entering a critical phase in its continued struggle against the Irish Sea Border. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson promised that he would not return to Stormont until the Irish Sea Border had been removed. That promise has now been broken.
It leaves us now a very divided community, with legitimate disagreements, and how we proceed into the future will have serious consequences for Unionism politically and electorally. A political civil war within Unionism will leave casualties on all sides, and only make our community more vulnerable in the longer term.
A word of warning to anyone who may want to demolish the DUP for their decision or dismiss Jim Allister for his objections. A unionism that eats itself alive, like some sort of sycophantic self-harming cannibal, will not strengthen the Union or safeguard it from future and further harm.
What we have, we hold. What we have lost, we must continue to fight for.